Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
