What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value (EV) is a fundamental concept in sports betting that helps bettors determine whether a wager has a positive or negative long-term potential betting sites uk EV represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the same wager were placed multiple times.
Why is EV Important in Sports Betting?
While luck plays a role in individual bets, understanding EV allows bettors to make more informed and strategic decisions. Consistently betting on positive EV (+EV) outcomes can lead to long-term profitability, while negative EV (-EV) bets typically result in losses over time.
How to Calculate Expected Value
EV is calculated using the following formula:
EV = (Probability of Win × Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Loss × Amount Lost per Bet)
Example of EV Calculation
Suppose you are betting $100 on a football team with the following odds:
- Odds: +150 (which means you win $150 for every $100 wagered)
- Probability of winning: 40%
- Probability of losing: 60%
Using the formula:
EV = (0.40 × 150) – (0.60 × 100)
EV = (60) – (60)
EV = $0
In this case, the EV is neutral, meaning you neither gain nor lose money in the long run. However, if the probabilities change (e.g., you determine the real chance of winning is 50%), the EV would be positive, indicating a profitable bet.
Identifying +EV Bets
To find +EV bets, consider:
- Comparing Odds Across Bookmakers: Different sportsbooks offer different odds; finding the best value increases your EV.
- Understanding True Probabilities: Use statistical models, historical data, and expert insights to estimate real probabilities.
- Avoiding Biased Betting: Avoid betting based on emotions or favoritism; focus on data-driven decisions.
Managing Your Bankroll with EV in Mind
Even with +EV bets, variance can lead to short-term losses. Proper bankroll management strategies, such as the Kelly Criterion, help maximize profits while minimizing risk.
Conclusion
Understanding and applying Expected Value in sports betting is essential for long-term success. By consistently making +EV bets and managing your bankroll wisely, you can increase your chances of profitability and reduce the impact of luck on your results.